The CFO'S Perspective

Executive Summary: Tariffs, particularly those on imports from key trading partners like Canada and Mexico, can have a far-reaching impact on U.S. businesses and the economy. While they may provide some protection for domestic industries, they also introduce significant challenges including higher costs, disrupted supply chains, and the need to make difficult decisions on pricing and profit margins. The ripple effects of tariffs can stretch across the broader economy, influencing consumer behavior and currency strength. Navigating these challenges successfully often requires the expertise of a CFO who can help businesses adapt, manage risks, and maintain financial health in an ever-changing economic landscape.

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With tariffs being recently imposed on U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico, it is important for business owners to understand the risks to their business, both directly and on the economy at large, and how engaging with a skilled financial leader may help minimize the impact.

I've been pondering the narrative around an economic recession for this entire year, along with many of you. Candidly, the discussion reaches back into 2022. Economists were wrestling with whether the consequence of the US Fed's economic tightening would lead to a recession. Or if the economy had so much momentum, while economic activity would slow, we wouldn't enter a technical recession.

(Ed: I won't spend much time offering technical rationale in this post. Ultimately, it's not the point I'm discussing. However, to frame the article, I'll define an economic recession as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth.) 

Flash forward to the end of Q2 2023, and I'd offer a recession is likely, though probably not declared until Q1 2024.

While some economists and business analysts claim we are already in a recession, many more believe we will be in one by the end of the year. The general consensus is that whether we are already there, or it is coming soon, for-profit and non-profit organizations alike will be affected. The question is how will they be affected and what will those effects look like? Essentially, what should they expect and to what degree should they expect to be affected?

Obviously, nonprofit organizations will feel the effects of a recession differently than the private sector, but the types of issues they are dealing with right now are the same: changing consumer behavior (purchasing and donating), increased costs, labor market changes, and increased reputational risk. How will nonprofits be affected?

With US inflation rates rising rapidly small and large manufacturers alike are being affected by inflationary pressures in much the same way, although small manufacturers will undoubtedly feel the sting of rising inflation more deeply than their larger counterparts. These pressures are being further exacerbated by:

• The speculation around a possible recession hitting between now and Q4 of 2023
• All-time record low small business expectations being reported
• The lowest consumer economic expectations being reported since 1980

Knowing that a recession may be coming does not tell us when, why, or how it may occur. However, paired with dropping small business and consumer confidence, a looming recession is only going to worsen the effects of rising inflation rates on US manufacturers.

With so much economic uncertainty the employment landscape in 2022 will likely remain tumultuous. Information about how many people are employed, where, and for how much is going to continue to dominate the business news headlines. And much like last year, compensation will be at the forefront of many employees’ minds as they watch their cost of living increase and worry whether their pay will keep pace.

Of course, for the nation’s unemployed, discussions about how compensation may fluctuate this year remain inconsequential. And for small businesses that have been doing their best to absorb rising costs without laying people off or shutting down, the idea of giving raises this year is likely going to be a moot point. But for middle management, executive leadership, and HR personnel at mid-sized to large companies, the question of what to expect in the way of raises remains critical to business planning.

So, what should you plan for a raise this year?

With a large segment of the workforce still working from home, what does this mean for the future of commercial real estate? According to recent data, office vacancy rates are over 16% right now (up from 9% in late 2019) and subleased space is coming back on the market. This has led many analysts to wonder whether companies still need the offices they had before and what will happen to all the vacant office space if companies do not return.

What does the future hold? Will the office building survive COVID-19, or is office space now obsolete?

Downsizing is never a light topic to broach, but for businesses that are financially compromised or experiencing a reduction in demand, it is important to fully understand before any strategic planning can begin.

Downsizing is often tied to a reduction in headcount. Headcount is more than just a number, which is why downsizing should be approached with the utmost care and consideration. Knowing why a company should downsize, what kind of risk is associated with doing so, and how to avoid common mistakes is key to increasing the likelihood that your reduction efforts will be successful.

Use this guide to get a better understanding of the implications of downsizing and help inform your strategic planning as it relates to both maintaining your business and preparing it for sale.

Regardless of what precipitates a recession, economic ebbs and flows are to be expected over time. Recessions can be caused by a period of contraction that inevitably comes after economic expansion or a sudden and unexpected economic shock.

While the coronavirus recession is fresh on our minds, it is not the first nor will it be the last recession that today’s businesses face. Knowing how to weather a recession is an essential management skill regardless of how long it lasts. However, facing a prolonged recession poses unique challenges that can test even the most adept leaders.

Our team of experienced CFOs shares their top tips on getting through a recession and coming out stronger on the other side: