The CFO'S Perspective

Originally published: 2/15/2021
Updated: 3/4/2024

For those not familiar with the term, a decision tree is a flow chart that works through all possible response options in a scenario to analyze resulting outcomes. Basically, it is a visual version of an “if this then that” statement across all possible alternatives.

The “branches” off each decision alternative that result use data analysis to forecast the most likely outcome of each decision. When one decision leads to another decision that must be made, that branch splits to continue extrapolating the effects of each subsequent decision. The result is a tree-like diagram (hence the name) that is easy to understand and interpret.

Decision trees can be more conceptual in nature or have numbers to back up decision scenarios, as is the case of pricing changes affecting revenue figures. For decision trees with complicated calculations, a software program can assign values and probabilities to streamline decision-making. A decision tree is a critical part of strategic planning because it allows decision makers to analyze the effects of a significant change throughout different areas of the business.

We’re trying something new today by giving our readers access to insights from an internal conversation we’ve been having! In a recent team meeting our experienced CFOs were discussing what organizations can do to get ready for a recession or economic downturn. The list of tips that our team came up with to prepare your business for a recession offers great advice for for-profit and non-profit entities alike, no matter what the future holds. Below is the result of that brainstorming session.

Creating authentic connections with customers can help companies to attract new customers, retain existing customers, and develop brand advocates to increase customer lifetime value across the organization. It can also benefit employees, strengthening the company from within. Having a meaningful connection with the people they are serving allows employees to find meaning in the work that they do, simultaneously increasing employee retention and making it easier to attract top talent for new roles. The net effect of these internal and external shifts is greater, more sustainable revenue.

As companies continue to battle unexpectedly high inflation and economic uncertainty, understanding this year’s prevailing trends across financial forecasting, fintech stacks, procurement, and customer attribution can help them to increase revenue and market share. Our ongoing research and conversations with other c-suite professionals in the industry have revealed several key shifts in these areas that can affect not only how a CFO does their job but also how their organizations develop and execute on strategic plans.

A large part of any Chief Financial Officer (CFO) role is strategic decision support, whether those decisions are related to staffing, pricing, selling, manufacturing, or any other area of the business. A CFO’s forward-looking point of view combined with their financial acumen makes them ideally suited to provide actionable information to their CEOs and other corporate decision makers and integral to the success of the organization.

Leaning on a CFO for strategic decision making support offers the following benefits:

• Adding value to the company in the short-term as well as the long-term
• Providing data-driven guidance during business shifts
• Aiding in weathering a crisis or downturn

In 2018 we published an article titled “How a CFO Will prepare Your Business for Unexpected Events.” In it we outlined 19 types of unanticipated events that could negatively affect your business and provided advice on how to develop a contingency strategy that would help your company prepare for any kind of disaster or disruption it might encounter.

Do you know what was not included in that list? A pandemic.

This was not simply an oversight. It was an indication that a global health issue was not on anyone’s radar. It was unthinkable in 2018 that one highly contagious illness could sweep through country after country, shutting down economies and causing destruction. No one was preparing for a global pandemic.

And yet, another interesting observation stands out to us. While the word “pandemic” was never used to address that specific kind of business disruption, the many outcomes of the pandemic were addressed. Loss of a business owner, financial hardship, loss of customers, new government regulations, political unrest, supply chain disruptions, loss of salespeople, and transportation issues were all named as possible unexpected events that could have a significant impact on a company.

Our CFOs get asked about business exit options a lot, especially these days. Business owners that are looking to step away to pursue other endeavors, interested in cashing out to get the full value of their hard work, or nearing retirement all wonder when they should make their move to maximize their gain.

While last year’s expected Federal tax rate increases did not happen, there is still lingering apprehension around the timing of exiting your business. So, though the urgency we witnessed last year has dissipated, the ongoing question still remains: should you sell your business this year, next year, or not at all?

As executive financial recruiters we work with companies every day who have lost their CFO for a variety of reasons. The CFO may have left to pursue a better opportunity, retired, or made a career change. And in some instances, the CFO may have been shown the door due to subpar performance.

In all honesty, the latter scenario is the least common. Most organizations are hesitant to let their CFO go because of the inherent doubt in the process of doing so. First, there is the big question of how to determine whether your CFO is making the grade. (You certainly do not want to let your CFO go if you cannot be certain that someone else will be able to do the job better!) And, secondly, there is the daunting prospect of needing to find a replacement that is going to be better performer.

But just because it is not very common in practice does not mean it should be. Companies, especially those with owners and CEOs that do not have strong financial acumen themselves, do not typically evaluate their financial leadership as thoroughly as they should. Unfortunately, if your CFO is underperforming, not identifying this in a timely manner or not doing anything about it, can be extremely costly. When your financial leadership is falling short of expectations, strategic planning can fail, affecting revenue and profitability.